* As Steve Martin used to say…

“But the most amazing thing of all: I get paid for doing this” (the closing lines for one of the comedian’s songs during his heyday in the late 1970s).

I bring it up because, once again, it goes to the folly of using sports pundits as a source of reliable information. At least when it comes to betting on games.

One of these days, I’m going to host a website that annotates Pardon the Interruption, to fill in the missing gaps and explain the references that might escape the casual viewer. Don’t get me wrong, I love the show, but people like Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon come across as so adamant in their pronouncements that it’s almost funny to deconstruct. Of course this comes after the fact, but even so. (Fill-in host Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe will frequently end a prediction by calling it the “lock di tuti locks,” which is kind of funny since I presume he’s Irish.)

So I’m listening to the podcast of yesterday’s PTI in which the lead story is about Game Six of the World Series (Congrats to the Yankees, by the way).

Here’s the transcript, with my footnotes for ease of reading:

TK: Game Six starts in just a little bit from Yankee Stadium. Andy Pettitte is pitching on three days’ rest, the great Pedro Martinez,¹ pitching on five days’ rest. Wilbon, you don’t like pitchers on short rest, so I assume you’re going to take my boy, Pedro.

MW: Yes, Tony, yes I am. Pettitte’s 37 years old, right? Thirty-seven?

TK: Well, Pedro’s got to be 37¹ also…

MW: Okay, fine, but Pedro’s not pitching on three days’ rest. My point is, if you’re 37 years old and you’re going through whatever Pettitte’s career — I mean a distinguished career of 15, 16 years…

TK: Fabulous post-season record… ²

MW: …you don’t do this thing, okay? You are not a hulking left tackle of a man like CC Sabathia, who seems to be able to, initially, pitch on three days’ rest. Why are you doing this?

TK: Pedro is much smaller than Pettitte. ³

MW: Pedro once again: not pitching on three days’ rest, pitching on five days’ rest.

TK: I think the critical factor is not so much the amount of rest, although that’s part of it. The weather is going to be in the 40s and these guys are almost in their 40s. I don’t think either pitcher will go five full [innings].

MW: Wow.

TK: I think this is going to be one of those 9-8 sorts of games⁴ and I think the bullpens will be in early and the bullpens on both sides aren’t very good until you get to Mariano Rivera⁵, and I don’t know that the Yankees will be able to get to [him].⁶

MW: That scenario makes sense, given the weather. But, Tony, if Pedro Martinez, having talked all the smack he’s talked and … to have been as great a pitcher as he’s been, I expect Pedro to go out there and get a quality start of seven innings, two or three earned runs… ⁷

TK: Seven innings!

MW: Yes.

TK: He’s like 90!

MW: Five days’ rest, Tony.

TK: I’m telling you, I don’t think either guy gets out of the fifth.⁸

MW: Pedro has been selling woof tickets {editor’s note: ?] for a week.

TK: I like him, but I don’t think he gets out of the fifth.

MW: Let’s see him pitch.

Later in the show, Kornheiser and Wilbon repeat their predictions to guests Tim McCarver and Joe Buck, the announcers for the broadcast on FOX, who have their own opinions, which I won’t go into here (you can listen to the podcast on iTunes).

So can we take away from this? Basically, in the majority of instances, these guys can’t forecast the outcome any better than you or I. Except they get on the air and are often paid handsomely for getting it wrong.

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¹ 38, actually.

 

² 18-9 with a 3.90 ERA in 40 games. Pettitte appeared in one National League Divisional series, 11 ALDS, seven AL Championship Series, 1 NLCS, and eight World Series. Not too shabby.

³ Pettitte: 6′5″, 235. Martinez: 5′11″, 170.

⁴ The Yankees broke out to leads of 2-0, 4-1, and 7-1 before winning 7-3.

⁵ After Martinez and Durbin allowed the seven runs, four Phillies relievers combine for no runs (which, although statistically correct, is misleading since Happ was not penalized for the two inherited runners he allowed to score). Meanwhile, the two relievers preceding Rivera allowed just one hit.

⁶ Yes, they did, even bringing him in in the eighth inning, to record the final five outs. While the four run lead, however, he did not earn a save.

⁷ Martinez did not have a quality start, which is six innings or more allowing three earned runs or less. He was gone, as Kornheiser predicted, by the fifth.

⁸ Pettitte didn’t get a quality start either, but he did pitch into the sixth inning.